- Many experts have argued that it's impossible to consistenly predict sports correctly because it is a 'random walk'. Random walk is an economic term that means the past performance doesn't predict future performance. However, recent data is proving that theory wrong.
- The Kelly Criterion was a formula developed by J.L. Kelly Jr in 1956. The practical use of it has been demonstrated numerous times and we use it here. The kelly formula is the foundation of a winning proportional betting system.
Expected Value vs. Expected Growth
- The expected value of a bet and the expected growth of your bankroll are two numbers you need to make intelligent decisions. Understanding the difference, and how to calculate the two, is one of the things the separates the professionals from everyone else.
Bayes Theorem and False Claims - Handicappers make a lot of claims. Outrageous winning percentages, guaranteed "locks" on games and bankrolls fit for a king. They can't all be telling the truth, can they? The short answer is no. Bayes theorem shows you the math behind what it takes to be a consistent winner.
- Linear regression is an advanced statistical technique that forms the foundation of our handicapping formula. It's been used for years in financial and economic sectors and now we're using it to help beat the book.
The Emotional Investor - Emotion is the enemy of the investor. Betting on sports means there is going to be a lot of shor term volatility in our bankroll. Staying level-headed, patient and disciplined will help us beat the book.
The Greatness of the Patriots
- The Patriots dominated the Colts in the AFC Divisional playoff game. Year after year they continue to stay on top. Both are due to the Patriot Way.