Sports Handicapping Experts

The Philadelphia Eagles came into this draft looking to add some firepower to the defensive side of the ball.  After only ranking 16^th in defensive YPA and 19^th in defensive rushing YPA the defense needed more playmakers to match the production level of the offense.

The Eagles made a great move by showing patience and moving up to number 12 to grab Fletcher Cox.  Todd McShay breakdowns that he thought the pick carried value as well.  He came from Mississippi State and will likely line up in the DT position for the Eagles.  He shows a quick initial burst which should allow him to play in the backfield and disrupt plays.  He’s a versatile and athletic player who could also line up on the outside.

In the Wide Nine defensive scheme the Eagles run the interior of the defense has a lot of space to cover.  The need a deep rotation at the position because guys are expected to play with a high motor.  Adding Cox and DeMeco Ryans at MLB through free agency definitely boots the interior of the Eagles defense.

Mychal Kendricks was the 2^nd overall pick for the Eagles at number 46.  A linebacker out of California many expect Kendricks to fit in perfect in the Eagles scheme.  He’s a rangy kind of linebacker who will look to succeed quickly in his new role. Kendricks is quick, instinctive and makes plays outside the box, and he’s very good on third down with the ability to hold up in underneath zone coverage. He possesses underrated pass rushing skills and will likely be a very productive member of the defense.  Look for him to get some snaps early in the season to see how he produces.   He was a great pick at 46^th overall and the Eagles prove once again that there is value to be had as the draft goes on for teams that know how to find it.

On top of that they added Brandon Boykin in the 4^th round.  He has a lot of talent but he suffered an injury in the Senior Bowl and has two concussions on record.  If he can stay on the field he looks to be productive.  He will help the defense greatly as a CB in the nickel packages who can cover the slot.

Even though there were times when the offense seemed to struggle last season it wasn’t due to a lack of talent.  The Eagles are relatively young at the skill positions, particularly wide receiver and every extra day playing together helps.  Between Jason Avant, Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin the oldest among them is 29.  Vick leads the offense as the elder and even he has a relative lack of experience because of time missed in the league.  Add to that the fact that when Michael Vick came to the Eagles Andy Reid worked with him to completely revamp who he was as a quarterback.  In that scenario there are going to be learning curves.  Last season they were exposed as being inadequate at adjusting to the blitz if effective pressure was applied to Vick.  Look for situations like that to begin to get handled better as time passes.  As they begin to gel and work better together they will excel in almost all situations.  More careful analysis in the film room will lead the young players to make more accurate predictions about the defensive schemes they’re facing.

The Eagles turned in a very impressive draft.  It’ll be hard to come out of the NFC East because of the Giants but don’t be surprised if the Eagle are right in the running till the end of the regular season.

The Detroit Lions entered the draft with a need to improve on the defensive side of the ball, particularly at the cornerback position.  However, that wasn’t their only need that had to be addressed, just the biggest.

With the 23^rd overall selection in the draft, the Lions took Riley Reiff OT Iowa.

Todd McShay gives a quick breakdown on his view of the pick.  I think he hits the nail right on the head by saying it is a pick with a lot of value.  Even though the offensive line wasn’t the biggest need, it was a need.  By choosing Riley Reiff they got a player whose value is probably higher than you would typically get with the 23^rd selection.  If they would have drafted for need and chosen a cornerback, they probably would have had to reach and choose someone who really only had the talent of an early 2^nd round pick.  It may not seem like much at first glance, but over the course of years and building a roster it really adds up.

When you consider the salary cap in the decision making process it changes how things are done now as compared to the early 1990’s.  There is a reason teams go into the draft with values attached to players and pick selections in the draft.  The value attached to a player allows teams a way to judge a players worth relative to other players who play a different position.  This is crucial to following a draft strategy that goes for the best player on the board vs. need based picking.  The value that is attached to pick selections allows teams to gauge what they would be willing to trade their pick for.  If a team would have called and wanted to trade for the Lions 23^rd overall pick, they have to have some way o measure what it is worth, and what the other team is offering.

Part of the process of assigning a value to a draft selection is the money that must be paid to the person who was drafted there.  Players who get drafted are going to get contracts that reflect where they were drafted regardless of what overall views were of them before the draft.  If you consistently reach for players in the draft you will find yourself paying guys more than they are worth (Paying a 2^nd round talent 1^st round money).

The Lions did very well this draft and got fortunate.  They probably didn’t expect Reiff, Ryan Broyles or Dwight Bentley to be available when they were drafted, that makes them lucky.  They can’t get the credit for that because the cards fall where they may.  They can however get the credit for being able to recognize a great opportunity when they see one and that is exactly what the Lions did.  It’s tough being successful in the NFL.  These talent scouts, coach and the GM are all basically just working as handicappers trying to figure out who can really play this game at the highest level.  It’s easy to get lost in the numbers some times.  The best guys recognize a tool is only a tool and should never be the whole focus.  The Combine and Pro Days can tell us a lot about a player, but there is a gap between working out and actually playing the game of football.

The New York Giants enter the 2012 NFL Draft in an enviable position.  Not because they have the 32^nd overall pick, but because they are the defending champions.  Like most successful teams in todays game the Giants built their team year by year from Radio City Music Hall.  The draft is the key to building a long-term successful franchise and the Giants understand that as well as anyone.

One of the problems with being consistently good, and even worse when you win the Super Bowl, is that other teams want to sign your players away from you.  Time and time again we see players leave a Super Bowl winning team and receive and inflated contract with their new employer.  Good for them, but in this case bad for the Giants, who have lost some important pieces of their team during the offseason.  The draft will need to be the area where the find the replacements for Aaron Ross, Mario Manningham, and Brandon Jacobs.

The Giants had a very impressive passing attack last season, led by Eli Manning, averaging 8.4 YPA behind only Green Bay and New England.  Even though they will miss Manningham with the receivers thy have left and Manning running the show they will still be able to throw the ball effectively.  Losing Jacobs is a bigger concern because the current starter, Ahmad Bradshaw, is injury prone.  I think they will go after another running back later in the draft.  It’s not an urgent need so they don’t have to target a RB with their first round choice.

The Giants should definitely be looking at the defensive side of the ball with their first round selection.  They ranked 22^nd in defensive YPA last season and go into this year minus Aaron Ross.  The secondary has some questions marks, but the biggest need is ILB.  Right now there are a lot of question marks there with Chase Blackburn and Jonathan Goff.  Or they could decide to go with youngsters Mark Herzlich and Greg Jones, who haven’t shown the ability to be every-down starters.  Stability at this position is a worry right now and don’t be surprised if they attempt to go with someone who shows real potential.  If Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama fell to them at 32, I think they go with him.

There are a lot of differing opinions on what the Giants will do.  The problem is they have so many positions that need help.  Noted draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd Mcshay can’t agree either.  Mcshay has his mock draft has the Giants looking to add Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford.  It’s a position that needs attention since two their guys tear ACL’s.  Kiper seems to think the NYG could go with Bobby Massie, OT, Ole Mis.  Also a very believable scenario seeing as how the Giants turned in a horrible 3.5 YPA when rushing the ball.  Much of the blame for that lies with the offensive line.

One thing we know for sure is Jerry Reese will draft the best player on the board.  It’s a philosophy that has worked for him and many others in the salary cap era.  Whichever way the Giants decide to go it will be in a welcomed area.  The draft will be a good place for them to keep the roster stacked with young talent.  It’s tough being at the top.

The Dallas Cowboys are a team that is always on peoples minds.  The media covers them constantly; in both good times and bad.  One of the major reasons for that is the man at the top…Jerry Jones.  He is a very astute businessman, a great marketer, and someone with a true passion and desire to be the best.  Those are all good things, and I can understand why it draws all the media attention that it does.  However, it can also cause us to a skewed vision of what the Dallas Cowboys actually are as a football team.

Nobody is under any false illusions as to who calls the shots in Dallas.  Jerry Jones is the GM and he will be the one who makes the final decisions on the Cowboys personnel, both throughout the draft and free agency.  The best that we can hope for is that Jerry makes good decisions, which he has been known to do at times in the past, and that he listens to the people around him.  He has surrounded himself with intelligent, talented people.  He has the input of both head coach Jason Garrett, and Tom Ciskowski, director of college and pro scouting.  Ciskowski was actually being considered as a candidate for the GM job in Indianapolis, which should serve as an indicator to his talent and respect level in the league.

Leading up to the draft Jason Garrett was asked about his philosophy concerning team building and he answered, in what I consider, the best way possible.  He stated that the draft is ideally for selecting the best players possible and filling any holes through free agency.  He didn’t say anything about the risk/reward ratio of having high draft picks, but I imagine he has given it thought.  Garretts father was a long-time scout for the Cowboys so I’m sure he has picked up a thing or two over the years about not only talent evaluation but how the salary cap effects who you can put on the field.

The Cowboys turned in an 8-8 performance last season, hardly anything to write home about.  The good news is they have a lot of room for improvement.  So where exactly does that improvement lie, and how will the draft help to further those goals?  The Cowboys ranked 10^th last season in passing YPA, and 9^th in rushing YPA.  Those are both very respectable numbers, many teams have done better that 8-8 with numbers worse than those.  The defensive side of the ball however, is where we see the most need for improvement.  The Cowboys ranked an abysmal 24^th against the pass in YPA, they did only slightly better against the run at 12^th. One positive statistic from the defense is they accounted for 42 sacks last season.  Why am I using YPA to measure success vs. other statistics like overall yards?  YPA is an attempt to have a way to equally measure the numbers.  Overall numbers can be skewed by things like time of possession, whether a team is winning or losing the game etc.

So where does this quick analysis leave us as we enter the draft?  I would suggest the Cowboys need help on the defensive side of the ball, particularly on the back-end.  They can get pressure on the quarterback, that shows in their sack numbers, but overall they have trouble stopping the pass.  Any team that hopes to be successful in todays game has to be able to stop the other team from throwing the ball effectively.  What position the Cowboys should go for, (safety, linebacker, corner) will be determined on a few factors. First, who is best player left on the board at those positions?  Second, will he fit correctly into the type of scheme we’re running?  There have been many very good players who couldn’t shine because they were in the wrong scheme for their skill set.  Conversely, an average player can be made to look very good if his is utilized correctly.  The Patriots have shown this best throughout the years.  Last, but certainly not least, will he fit into the locker room?  It’s been highlighted more so now than ever that that attitude in the locker room has a huge effect on winning come Sunday.

As it sits now the Dallas Cowboys enter the 2012 draft with the 14^th overall pick.  I suggest they go with a Dont’a Hightower, ILB, from Alabama or a Stephen Gilmore, CB, from S. Carolina.  Wither one of these men have to potential to not only make a difference for the Cowboys for years to come, but also make a positive contribution this season.

Lets hope Jerry Jones comes into this drat prepared, I mean really prepared.  As I stated earlier, I think he is a great businessman.  I also think he has a phenomenal work ethic.  His success is beyond question, and you just don’t achieve everything he has by luck.  He built a beautiful stadium with the notion of hosting non-football events.  He has begun to do that.  He also entered into the hospitality business with the Steinbrenners, I bet the profit potential there is huge.  Yet, I have to ask myself how many other General Managers of professional football teams are engaged in all those other “extra curricular activities”, probably not many.  Being a successful GM isn’t a part-time job.  If Jerry Jones dedicates himself to something, I believe he can be successful, I just hope he decides it’s time to show it with this draft.